Since Winston Churchill coined the phrase in the aftermath of World War II, British leaders have celebrated the “special relationship” between the United States and the United Kingdom. However, under President Donald Trump’s second term, the U.K. finds itself adjusting to a more functional, rather than deeply personal, connection with its former colonial power and closest ally. With Trump threatening tariffs on America’s neighbors, considering the purchase of Greenland, and even suggesting the U.S. might "take over" and rebuild Gaza, Britain, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, is racing to shore up its diplomatic and economic position in preparation for a new transatlantic era of unpredictability.Kathleen Burk, an expert on
U.S.-U.K. relations at University College London, noted, “We’re in such uncharted waters that anyone who claims to know what in the hell is going on is just lying.”
The Role of the British Ambassador to Washington
Prime Minister Starmer hopes to visit Washington soon, although he has yet to receive an invitation from Trump. Meanwhile, the responsibility falls to Britain’s newly appointed ambassador to the U.S., Peter Mandelson. A prominent Labour Party figure who served in Tony Blair and Gordon Brown’s governments, Mandelson takes over from Karen Pierce, who had earned respect across both the Democratic and Republican aisles. His appointment is unusual for a politician to fill such a high-ranking diplomatic post, as British ambassadors are typically career civil servants. Mandelson, who once referred to Trump as a “danger to the world”—a statement he later admitted was “ill-judged and wrong”—is, however, seen as a savvy pick by some analysts. Known for his resilience, he has earned the nickname “Prince of Darkness” for his political maneuvering and expertise in economic matters, including his time as the EU's trade commissioner.Jill Rutter, a senior fellow at the Institute for Government, suggested that Mandelson’s political acumen and connections with the wealthy could prove valuable in maintaining diplomatic ties. "He will give very classy parties," she added.
Leveraging the Royal Family’s Influence
In addition to diplomatic savvy, Britain may rely on its royal family to smooth over tensions with Trump, who has longstanding ties to Scotland and a fondness for the monarchy. Trump has spoken highly of Queen Elizabeth II, who hosted him during his 2019 state visit, and noted a pleasant conversation with Prince William. A possible return visit for Trump, with all the ceremonial splendor Britain can muster, seems likely.
Tension Between U.S. and EU Relations
Right-wing British politicians see Trump’s return as an opportunity for deeper trade ties with the U.S. and perhaps a long-sought free trade agreement. Negotiations began after Britain’s departure from the European Union in 2020 but were stalled due to disagreements on agricultural issues, including imports of chlorine-rinsed chicken and hormone-treated beef. Another challenge for Starmer is his desire to pursue closer trade relations with the EU, signaling a potential “reset” after years of tension over Brexit. Situated between the U.S. and the EU, Britain could find itself under increasing pressure to align with one side.Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and the Americas program at Chatham House, dismissed the idea that Britain must choose between Europe and the U.S. “They can’t choose,” she said. “At the end of the day, Europe, the U.S. and the U.K. are in this together.”
Pressure on Trade and Defense Spending
Trump’s administration has already ramped up pressure on NATO allies to meet defense spending targets, threatening not to defend nations that fall short. Britain currently spends 2.3% of its GDP on defense, with plans to raise this to 2.5%. This has led to greater concerns about the viability of NATO in the long term, especially considering Trump’s repeated critiques of the alliance’s value.Britain is also feeling the pressure on trade. Trump has suggested that the U.K. could avoid tariffs imposed on its neighbors like Canada and Mexico. According to U.S. trade statistics, the U.K. exports more to the U.S. than it imports, giving Britain a certain advantage in negotiations. However, the U.K. also needs to balance these relations with the EU, its largest trading partner, which accounts for half of its trade.
The U.K.’s Role in the Ukraine Conflict
Britain’s significant support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, however, poses a dilemma. Trump has expressed a desire to end the conflict on terms that remain unclear, and Starmer’s government hopes to dissuade the U.S. from abandoning Ukraine or striking a deal favorable to Russian President Vladimir Putin.Moreover, British diplomats and intelligence agencies are assessing the future of intelligence-sharing with the U.S. and what the new administration means for the “Five Eyes” group, which includes the U.K., U.S., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
Preparing for the Unforeseen
With the coming years fraught with uncertainties, British ministers and civil servants must brace for the unexpected. Experts like Rutter stress the need to consider the unthinkable, such as potential regulatory failures within the U.S. government that could affect global air travel or economic stability.Vinjamuri emphasized that the next four years will test Britain’s diplomatic skills like never before, requiring pragmatism in managing relationships with the U.S. and Europe. “The challenge is,” she said, “we have some known unknowns, but we also have a lot of unknown unknowns, and that, I think, is going to be the trickier part.”
